2024 election: Missed an open goal

 

First preference votes don’t tell the whole story of an election but they are sometimes a better indication of voter intent than the final outcome.

In the Hills Shire Council elections of September 14, the first preference count tells a sorry tale.  There’s little doubt that campaigning for significant change in the Hills has been ineffective or not reached sufficient voters and there are lessons to be learned.

Liberal’s share of first preference (FP) votes across all contests (Mayoral and four ward elections) increased by 4.4% over the 2021 result (Table 1).

The result is a superficially unchanged council - the Liberals hold the mayoralty and 8 of 12 councillors, Labor 3 councillors and Greens 1 - exactly the same numbers as before, even if some faces have changed.

Table 1: First preference votes across all five Hills Shire contests

Byrne bounce and reduced mayoral field

The 4.4% increase in the Liberal’s vote is attributable mainly to the Mayoral contest.

This may be explained by a personal “bounce” in favour of past mayor Michelle Byrne.  But before new mayor Byrne takes too much comfort from that we must also observe that in the 2021 contest there were two independent candidates who attracted a total of 10.75% of first preference votes.  The absence of independent candidates this time certainly would have contributed to Byrne’s increased share of the vote - by how much, though, is speculation.

Table 2 excludes those effects by showing the first preference count and share across just the four ward elections (excluding the Mayoral contest).

But even excluding the mayoral contest, the Liberal vote is almost unchanged from 2021, having declined by just 0.2%.  No comfort there.

Table 2: First preference votes across all four Hills Shire ward contests

Harsh truth

The last Liberal-dominated Hills Shire Council had a reprehensible record over its three years, characterised by:

• Disrespect for democratic norms, processes and institution;

• Ignorant or willful adherence to party and factional dogma;

• Protection of self interest and vested interests;

• Disregard for community views and participation;

• Opportunism, intolerance and bigotry;

• Antipathy to environmental and climate concerns.

And yet, depending how you cut it, their first preference vote was either 4.4% up or virtually unchanged from the 2021 result.

One possibility is to conclude that an overwhelming majority of Hills Shire voters do not care about any or all of the many matters on which we believe they should have held the Liberals to account.

We don’t accept that.

And if you don’t accept that either, then the alternative seems to be that Hills Shire voters were not sufficiently aware of the true nature of the council that they seemingly endorsed.

And that is a resounding failure!  Sure it’s a failure for this page but we are a minnow.

More importantly, for the alternative parties, for prospective independents, for community movements, there are important lessons to be taken on board.  Carrying on doing more of the same will not accomplish change in the Hills.

Despite the abominable record of the last council in their foreshortened three year term, we have failed to make any significant impact on their vote share.  The new council may not offer such an easy target.  This has been a missed opportunity.

As long as the Liberals continue to achieve 50+% first preference votes in each ward they are guaranteed to hold 66% of the councillor positions.  The first job is to make some inroads on their vote share.  This 2024 failure means that job starts now for 2028.

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NOTE: Vote shares in contested elections

In 2021 Labor did not contest the North Ward.  In 2024 the Greens did not contest the West Ward.  In both cases, when looking at total votes across the contests, this diminishes the share of the votes for those parties.

To adjust for that we added the last two columns in the two tables above that show:

1. The total formal votes cast in elections actually contested;

2. The vote share percentages based on that contested vote count

NOTE: because they are not like-for-like, the vote share percentages in the last column do not add up to 100%.  But they better illustrate the share of votes achieved in the elections actually contested.

Around the wards

• Liberals vote up by nearly 9%: probably due in part to a bounce for the returning Michelle Byrne.

• Labor vote down significantly: likely due in part to a new and unknown candidate replacing the respected but retiring councillor Ryan Tracey.

• Greens vote markedly up: sitting councillor Mila Kasby was the candidate this time, probably drawing additional first preference votes.

• Only the three candidates this time: in 2021 two independents attracted 10.75% of first preferences which this time around would have been redistributed amongst the three majors, inflating all their shares by an unknown amount.

• Remarkably little change in the results from 2021.

• Central ward was one of just two of five elections that showed steady or improved vote share for Labor, possibly due to the respected Tina Cartwright being their successful lead candidate.  Labor declines in other contests may be partly due to an entirely new and unfamiliar field of candidates.

• Liberal vote up by nearly 5% and a dramatic near 7% improvement for the Greens.

• Labor vote down more than 7% but remained enough for Labor’s Jane Grevtseva to narrowly prevail over the Greens Suzannah McDonald 

• Liberal and Greens vote shares both markedly down from 2021, largely due to Labor contesting this time after they had sat out the 2021 contest.

• Sitting Greens councillor Mila Kasby narrowly prevailed over Labor for the third councillor position.

• Liberal and Labor vote shares both markedly up from 2021, largely due to Greens not contesting this time.

• Independent candidate Seema Raghav achieved a very creditable 5%.

Turnout and informal

• Informal votes generally crept up a little, while turnout crept down.

• More than 16,000 Hills Shire voters will presumably be fined for failing to vote.

• The number of enrolled electors in the Hills has increased in three years by 12,915 (10.5%).  Some (including us) have assumed that changing demographics in the Hills may improve the progressive vote.  This 2024 result does not support that assumption.